Market review from UTEX — week 16

Finally, a bounce: the SPY added 5.5%, the Nasdaq 7.5%. The major move came on Wednesday when Trump announced the suspension of reciprocal duties. He gave a 90-day reprieve to 75 countries, so there would be time to negotiate. The SPY popped 9.5% and the Nasdaq gained 12%, marking the best day on Wall Street since 2008. 

With China the issue remained unresolved, the US raised duties to 145%, China responded on Friday with its own increase to 125%.

On Friday, news broke that the U.S. was exempting smartphones, computers and other electronics from reciprocal duties. But on Sunday, Trump posted a rebuttal: “no Tariff exception announced on Friday”. He explained that semiconductors, computers and smartphones are moving into a new 20% category. The tariff has been reduced from 145%+ to 20%. Trump added today that some companies in this sector will have flexibility, clearly alluding to NVIDIA and Apple.

Bitcoin fell as low as $74,500 on Wednesday, but reversed again. It is now trading at $84,800. Overall, bitcoin is stronger than the market right now.

Earnings season is gradually heating up. The main attention of investors is focused on companies' forecasts for the next quarter and the whole 2025.

This week will be a shortened: on April 18, Good Friday, the markets will be closed. High volatility is sure to persist, there is too much uncertainty about tariffs, especially between the U.S. and China. It makes no sense to raise them further, there is only the path of mutual concessions. But it seems that China will not give up so easily. Beijing is waiting for the first steps from Trump.

Top ideas to trade this week

🔴 ASML Holding (ASML), report on April 16 before the open. Another chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), will report April 17 before the open. These companies will set the movement for the entire sector: NVDA, ARM, AMD, AVGO, QCOM.

🔴 Kestra Medical Technologies (KMTS). Report on April 14 after the close. Company went public on March 6, manufactures portable cardioverter-defibrillators. First report as a public company. There could be good movement in the stock.

🔴 UnitedHealth Group (UNH). Report on April 17 before the open. The largest health insurer in the US. One of the few sectors that had almost no reaction to the market decline. UNH stock is up 25% for the month! UNH is 30 points away from all-time highs. Other companies from the sector are CI, HUM, CVS, CNC, ELV, MOH.

🟡 ManpowerGroup (MAN). Report on April 17 before opening. Manpower Management Company. Usually moves very nicely after the report, other days better to stay on the sidelines.

🟡 A few well known companies that fell the hardest over the last month. Could rebound nicely if there is progress in tariff negotiations:

• VF Corp (VFC) -31%
• ZEEKR Intelligent Technology (ZK) -30%
• Micron Technology (MU) -26%
• Nike (NKE) -25%
• Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) -25%
• PDD Holdings (PDD) -23%
• Mattel (MAT) -23%
• Alibaba Group (BABA) -22%

Trade what suits you best:

🔴 high risk, for the pros;

🟡 medium risk, for traders with little experience.

Profitable trades!

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