Market review from UTEX — week 48

The market continues its correction: over the week, the Nasdaq lost 3%, and SPY almost 2%.

NVIDIA, which reported better-than-expected results and posted record revenue, still ended the week down 5%. Other tech-sector companies fell sharply along with it, pulling down the rest of the market. Concerns about an AI bubble have not gone away even after such a strong report.

Stocks that had been outperforming the market recently fell hard: Advanced Micro Devices -17%, Micron Technology -11%, Palantir -11%, Oracle -10%, Microsoft -7%. The only company from the “Magnificent Seven” that ended the week in the green was Alphabet (+8%).

Bitcoin has lost 8% over the past 7 days even taking into account the rebound from the week’s lows over the past 3 days. BTC is now trading at $86,600. Ethereum lost more than 8%, falling to $2,800. Other cryptocurrencies also declined.

According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 0.25% Fed rate cut at the December 10 meeting has risen sharply: 71% versus 44% a week earlier.

On Thursday, the U.S. celebrates Thanksgiving — exchanges will be closed. Friday is a shortened session; trading will close at 1:00 pm EST. Company data from Black Friday will start coming out next week. 

Earnings season is nearing its end, the most interesting reports in the coming days are: Agilent, Alibaba, Analog Devices, Dell Technologies, Autodesk, NIO, Deere & Co.

Top ideas for trading this week

🟡 Dell Technologies (DELL). Earnings November 25 after the close. Since November 4, the stock has dropped from $170 to $115. Decent midterm prices, but only if the tech-sector selloff doesn’t continue and the earnings report doesn’t disappoint.

🟡 HP (HPQ). Earnings November 25 after the close. The company that inherited the PC and printer business after the Hewlett-Packard split. HPE (Hewlett Packard Enterprise) focused on tech solutions and services. Strong support around $20–$21. If it holds, you can accumulate, but more for the long term.

🔴 Deere & Co (DE). Earnings November 26 before the open. A machinery company producing agricultural, construction, and forestry equipment under the John Deere, Nortrax, Wirtgen, and Hamm brands. Sometimes gives good intraday moves. Midterm, a very heavy stock because of deep pullbacks, although the growth trend has remained stable, especially after 2020. Over 5 years it went from $150 to $500. A solid investment, but pullbacks of up to 30% from highs are common — better to buy during dips.

🟡 Amentum Holdings (AMTM). Earnings November 25 before the open. The company provides testing, training, and operation services for missile-defense systems and fulfills defense contracts. After its IPO more than a year ago, the stock found a bottom around $16 and began rising. Support around $21; could be a midterm play. On November 19, Andrew Left of Citron Research wrote that Amentum manages 90% of the U.S. nuclear infrastructure for the Department of Energy and that Trump “just made AMTM the most important company in America that nobody’s heard of.” Citron’s target is $55. After these comments, the stock rose 19%.

🔴 Ambarella (AMBA). Earnings November 25 after the close. The company creates chips for video cameras and computer vision. Traditionally moves strongly intraday after earnings, often with a large gap. On other days it is very difficult to trade. Trade it on earnings day if you like it, and forget it afterward.

Choose what suits you best:

🔴 high risk, for the pros;

🟡 medium risk, for traders with little experience.

Profitable deals!

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